(Hint: it’s almost never temperature)
When companies first integrate weather into decision-making, they usually start by tracking temperature.
It sounds like a great starting point to nearly everyone. Temperature is simple, familiar, and always available.
It is also usually the least useful element for tracking your business.
It turns out that businesses don’t react to weather conditions the way most people casually describe them.
Instead, business, like humans, react to the physical effects of weather:
- Will surfaces freeze?
- Will people feel uncomfortable?
- Will equipment overheat?
- Will workers slow down?
- Will customers change plans?
In the real world those outcomes are driven by combinations of weather elements, not a single number.
In this article we will describe a practical guide to which weather measurements actually influence real operational decisions and discuss some real-world examples that we’ve seen from working with our weather-savvy customers.
The Most Misused Element: Air Temperature
Temperature is a simple, numeric value that tells you how warm the air is.
It does not tell you:
- how hot it feels
- how fast ice forms
- whether people cancel plans
- whether workers fatigue
- whether goods spoil
- whether demand increases
Two days at 90°F can produce completely different outcomes:
| Day | Humidity | Wind | Business Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 20% | breezy | normal operations |
| B | 80% | calm | productivity drops, cancellations rise |
Same temperature. Completely different operational reality.
As you can see in this abstract example, temperature is best treated as a supporting element, not a decision element.
The ElementsThat Actually Drive Decisions
1) Dew Point — The Human Behavior Trigger
What it measures: actual moisture in the air
Dew point controls comfort, fatigue, and perceived heat. It is a much more reliably indicator of behavior than humidity or temperature.
Why businesses care:
- Outdoor attendance drops rapidly above ~70°F dew point
- Worker productivity declines
- HVAC load spikes
- Complaint rates increase
Unlike relative humidity, dew point remains consistent throughout the day and tracks human discomfort extremely well.
If your business depends on people showing up, staying longer, or working outside, this is often your primary predictor. In the real world, we have that this weather element is strongly correlated with summer energy consumption in warm climates. In any venue where people can select their own cooling level, such as hotel rooms and private homes, a high due point is a leading indicator of warm weather energy consumption. If your job is to anticipate energy use, you will want to watch the due point forecast closely.
2) Wet Bulb Temperature — The Safety Threshold
What it measures: combined heat + humidity stress on the body
Wet bulb temperature determines whether humans can physically cool themselves through sweating.
Why businesses care:
- OSHA safety decisions
- Athletic event risk
- Construction shutdown thresholds
- Liability exposure
Above certain wet bulb values, productivity doesn’t just decline, it becomes unsafe.
Many companies mistakenly monitor heat index instead, which is less reliable for operational policy decisions. In our experience, sophisticated organizations involved in outdoor work monitor dew point closely to keep employees, athletes, and anyone involved in outdoor exertion safe. This is an important weather element to monitor if you are responsible for scheduling outdoor labor such as construction, tree trimming, and lawn mowing. In addition both professional and amateur sports teams track wet bulb temperatures to schedule practices and manage day-game activities.
3) Surface Temperature — The Ice Predictor
What it measures: temperature of the ground or objects, not air
Ice forms based on surface temperature, not air temperature.
Why businesses care:
- road treatment timing
- slip-and-fall risk
- delivery safety
- facility management
A common failure is when air temperature is 34°F, so crews don’t treat surfaces. However, bridges freeze at a 31°F surface temperature making driving conditions unsafe. This also applies to business who are responsible for treating sidewalk, parking lots, and outdoor activity areas. Even when the air temperature is above freezing, the surface temperature may not be.
This single misunderstanding causes large operational losses every winter.
4) Precipitation Type & Rate — Not Just “Chance of Rain”
Probability of precipitation answers: Will precipitation occur at all?
Operational decisions need to know:
- how much
- how fast
- what type
| Scenario | Same rain probability | Different impact |
|---|---|---|
| Light drizzle for 4 hours | 80% | minimal disruption |
| 15-minute downpour | 80% | major disruption |
Rain rate and precipitation type frequently matters more than rain chance. We see in this used in the real world for nearly all types of activities. A sports game and even most outdoor work can continue in a light drizzle. However, even a short heavy downpour stops many outdoor activities in their tracks. In addition spectators at an event or vendors at a market will persist through drizzle but will flee to their cars and go home at the first sign of a downpour.
5) Wind — The Hidden Multiplier
Wind amplifies nearly every other weather effect:
- increases heat loss
- spreads wildfire risk
- drives energy demand
- alters snowfall accumulation
- changes outdoor comfort drastically
Many operational thresholds actually depend on wind combined with another element, not wind alone. For example, fire fighters monitor wind combined in combination with temperature and humidity to determine the risk that a campfire will turn into an devastating inferno. Also, wind has an outsized effect on outdoor comfort. In combination with even mildly cold temperatures, wind can keep people away from outdoor activities. Conversely, wind in conjunction with hot temperatures and high dew point can help keep people engaged in outdoor activies.
6) Solar Radiation & Cloud Cover — Demand Drivers
Clouds and solar radiation influence behavior and energy use more than temperature in many industries.
Why businesses care:
- retail traffic
- solar production
- photography/events
- tourism
- outdoor recreation
Two 75°F days produce different outcomes:
- Sunny → busy patios
- Overcast → normal traffic
Temperature alone predicted demand incorrectly, but the addition of cloud cover predicted it exactly. We see the use of cloud cover all the time in sophisticated business that have significant outdoor exposure and want to predict foot traffic. Cloud cover can predict visitor volume at outdoor markets, parks, zoos, and historical sites.
Forecast Confidence — The Element Most Companies Ignore
A forecast is not a single outcome. It is a probability distribution.
Operational mistakes often come from treating uncertain forecasts as certain.
Good weather-driven decisions depend on:
- how wrong the forecast might be
- not just what it predicts
Businesses that account for forecast confidence consistently outperform those that use deterministic rules. Whether your business involves planning the quantity of beverages at an event’s concession stands or knowing how much show plowing capacity should be on call, you need to account for more extremes of the forecast and not just the expected middle levels. Properly accounting for a shift in a storm pattern, a few degree temperature change, or a slight shift in the rain/snow boundary can mean the difference between having enough capacity to meet your customers’ demands or having them go away angry or unsatisfied.
A Better Way to Think About Weather Data
Instead of asking:
“What is the temperature tomorrow?”
Ask:
“What physical effect tomorrow changes my decision?”
Then choose the element that measures that effect.
| Business Question | Useful Element |
|---|---|
| Will customers stay outside? | dew point |
| Is it safe to work? | wet bulb |
| Will ice form? | surface temperature |
| Will operations stop? | precipitation rate |
| Will people go out? | cloud cover |
| Will demand spike? | solar radiation |
| How risky is the forecast? | forecast confidence |
The Takeaway
Weather affects business through physics and human behavior, not through a single familiar number.
Temperature is easy to understand, so it becomes the default metric.
But better, smarter decisions usually come from tracking the element that directly measures the operational risk,
Companies that shift from “weather awareness” to “weather-based decisions” almost always start by changing which weather elements they watch. Upgrading your weather elements nearly always needs to better, more actionable weather intelligence.